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Group Buyer
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一齊 Buy
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團購樂
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2011年6月25日星期六
2011年6月19日星期日
What Happens If Greece Defaults?
source : http://www.cnbc.com/
Greek Banks Get Nationalized
The banks of Greece are heavily exposed to the sovereign debt of their country. A default would require many of them to seek new capital to make up for the losses, and could trigger a run on banks by Greek depositors.
It's very likely that the Greek government would be forced to declare a "bank holiday" to prevent a run. Eventually, the most exposed Greek banks would likely have to be.
Europe's Banks Rocked
Europe's banks are big holders of Greek debt. They have something like $53 billion outstanding. France, Germany and the U.K. are the most exposed.
"If bondholders were required to take a 40 percent 'haircut'—a figure thrown up by many analysts—this would translate to losses in the order of €15.6 billion," or $22 billion, according to one report.
Credit Default Swap Guessing Game
It's unknown what the exposure of various financial institutions to a Greek default through credit default swaps might be. But someone has been selling lots of protection on Greek debt over the last few years, and a default would trigger a "credit event" payout on these insurance contracts.
A Global Credit Crunch
Doubts about the stability of financial institutions with direct and indirect exposure to Greece are likely to spread. Banks may hesitate to extend credit to each other out of fear about exposures. Many will require counter-parties to hand over additional collateral, forcing assets sales. In a repeat of the aftermath of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, global credit markets may seize up. Get ready to hear lots of talk about LIBOR
U.S. Money-Market Funds Challenged
Analysts say that U.S. money-market funds have more exposure to the short-term debt of European banks than many investors realize. If European banks cannot roll over their commercial paper, some of these money-market funds may find they have capital shortfalls.
Ireland And Portugal Tempted to "Just Walk Away"
The Irish and the Portuguese are facing years of slow economic growth as their governments attempts to bring down debt levels and stabilize their banking systems. A default by Greece—especially if brought about by a popular uprising in the streets of Athens—could encourage these countries to default. If Greece can force creditors to take a haircut, why should Ireland and Portugal pay in full?
The European Central Bank in Crisis
The European Central Bank is massively exposed not only to Greek sovereign debt but to the debt of Irish banks. If Greece and Ireland's banks do not make good on their debts, the ECB could be rendered insolvent, according to some analysts. Of course, the ECB is a central bank—which means it can always inflate its way back into solvency.
A Political Crisis in Germany
The turmoil across Europe may shake the government in Germany. The German people strongly oppose bailouts of what they view as less responsible countries. Any moves by the German government to alleviate the crisis caused by Greece could be met with a political revolt in the already shaky government of Angela Merkel.
U.S. Consumers Hit the Mattresses
Consumer confidence is already at a near nadir . A global credit crisis would likely convince U.S. consumers to reduce spending and increase savings. This could drag the already slowing American economy nearer to a recession
Politicians Say 'Don't Panic'
One thing is certain: Political leaders around the globe will attempt to reassure their constituents and prevent financial panics. The appearance of politicians paraphrasing Franklin D. Roosevelt's "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself" line is unlikely to make any difference whatsoever.
Protectionism Arises
Rob Subbaraman, an economist at Nomura, has warned that if Germany and France are burdened with the debts of southern Europe, “it is conceivable that to support these economies, a new form of protectionism takes house, whereby countries such as France and Germany buy more goods from them at the expense of Asian exports.”
China's Hard Landing
If U.S. consumers retreat and Europe goes protectionist, the weaknesses in the Chinese economy may become more evident. A slowdown in demand for goods from China could force the government to abandon its fight against inflation in order to keep the economy growing.
The alternative could be a "hard landing" scenario for China, in which years of over-investment in housing and infrastructure are revealed to be costly mistakes.
The U.S. Debt Ceiling Debate Ends
Following the chaos likely to result from a default by Greece, it's unlikely that U.S. politicians will be willing to tempt fate by pushing for political gains in connection with the debt ceiling of the U.S. government. Politicians will quickly fall in line and support raising the debt ceiling.
Greek Banks Get Nationalized
The banks of Greece are heavily exposed to the sovereign debt of their country. A default would require many of them to seek new capital to make up for the losses, and could trigger a run on banks by Greek depositors.
It's very likely that the Greek government would be forced to declare a "bank holiday" to prevent a run. Eventually, the most exposed Greek banks would likely have to be.
Europe's Banks Rocked
Europe's banks are big holders of Greek debt. They have something like $53 billion outstanding. France, Germany and the U.K. are the most exposed.
"If bondholders were required to take a 40 percent 'haircut'—a figure thrown up by many analysts—this would translate to losses in the order of €15.6 billion," or $22 billion, according to one report.
Credit Default Swap Guessing Game
It's unknown what the exposure of various financial institutions to a Greek default through credit default swaps might be. But someone has been selling lots of protection on Greek debt over the last few years, and a default would trigger a "credit event" payout on these insurance contracts.
A Global Credit Crunch
Doubts about the stability of financial institutions with direct and indirect exposure to Greece are likely to spread. Banks may hesitate to extend credit to each other out of fear about exposures. Many will require counter-parties to hand over additional collateral, forcing assets sales. In a repeat of the aftermath of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, global credit markets may seize up. Get ready to hear lots of talk about LIBOR
U.S. Money-Market Funds Challenged
Analysts say that U.S. money-market funds have more exposure to the short-term debt of European banks than many investors realize. If European banks cannot roll over their commercial paper, some of these money-market funds may find they have capital shortfalls.
Ireland And Portugal Tempted to "Just Walk Away"
The Irish and the Portuguese are facing years of slow economic growth as their governments attempts to bring down debt levels and stabilize their banking systems. A default by Greece—especially if brought about by a popular uprising in the streets of Athens—could encourage these countries to default. If Greece can force creditors to take a haircut, why should Ireland and Portugal pay in full?
The European Central Bank in Crisis
The European Central Bank is massively exposed not only to Greek sovereign debt but to the debt of Irish banks. If Greece and Ireland's banks do not make good on their debts, the ECB could be rendered insolvent, according to some analysts. Of course, the ECB is a central bank—which means it can always inflate its way back into solvency.
A Political Crisis in Germany
The turmoil across Europe may shake the government in Germany. The German people strongly oppose bailouts of what they view as less responsible countries. Any moves by the German government to alleviate the crisis caused by Greece could be met with a political revolt in the already shaky government of Angela Merkel.
U.S. Consumers Hit the Mattresses
Consumer confidence is already at a near nadir . A global credit crisis would likely convince U.S. consumers to reduce spending and increase savings. This could drag the already slowing American economy nearer to a recession
Politicians Say 'Don't Panic'
One thing is certain: Political leaders around the globe will attempt to reassure their constituents and prevent financial panics. The appearance of politicians paraphrasing Franklin D. Roosevelt's "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself" line is unlikely to make any difference whatsoever.
Protectionism Arises
Rob Subbaraman, an economist at Nomura, has warned that if Germany and France are burdened with the debts of southern Europe, “it is conceivable that to support these economies, a new form of protectionism takes house, whereby countries such as France and Germany buy more goods from them at the expense of Asian exports.”
China's Hard Landing
If U.S. consumers retreat and Europe goes protectionist, the weaknesses in the Chinese economy may become more evident. A slowdown in demand for goods from China could force the government to abandon its fight against inflation in order to keep the economy growing.
The alternative could be a "hard landing" scenario for China, in which years of over-investment in housing and infrastructure are revealed to be costly mistakes.
The U.S. Debt Ceiling Debate Ends
Following the chaos likely to result from a default by Greece, it's unlikely that U.S. politicians will be willing to tempt fate by pushing for political gains in connection with the debt ceiling of the U.S. government. Politicians will quickly fall in line and support raising the debt ceiling.
2011年6月4日星期六
如何辨識「向下炒」股票?
如何辨識「向下炒」股票?股票沒有眼耳口鼻可認，但「向下炒」股票的四大運作特點包括:拆、配、合、供。 如果四者都有齊，即使不是，也應該不遠矣。你會問，這其中幕後玩家是如何賺錢?方法有很多，而且千奇百怪，但萬變不離其宗，其宗旨就是運用上述四 招，做到狂印股票的目標。
這類股票印刷機的運作，需要一個動聽的故事。所謂「故事」，即是能夠引君入甕的賣點，引投資者入市接棒， 或者事後將一切「合理化」。「向下炒」的股票，賣點可以是轉型，可以是注資，潮流時興博彩即有博彩，流行彩票即轉型彩票業，資源、環保更加是長賣長有的故仔。
共通點是，大部分資產及業務，閣聞所未聞，而且相關業務最終無疾而終，甚至乎一些巨額收購項目，寧可蝕本出售。更加教人困惑的是系內交換資產，一項資產左手交右手，發行一堆換股債券右手交到左手。更匪夷所思的是，透過公司買入豪宅或私人遊艇，公器私用。
至於股票印刷機的做法，可以是先把股價炒高，繼而配股、發換股債、認股權證等等工具，繼而不停拋售手上所持的股票，最後是在低價配股或行使換股債、認購權證等，補回之前活出的股份，賺取中間差價之餘，再次把貨源收集。假如股價跌得太殘，滿街屍骸時，甚至乎連收集也免得做，大比例合股、供股後，貨源輕易又收齊。一段時間後，重施故技，再向下炒，反覆來回賺取差價。
這類上市公司永遠不會為股東創造價值，只是一台股票印刷機器:但要成為一部出色的機器，則需要源源不絕的「故事 」配合。
一間公司股本經過又供又合的財技運作後，其資產可能也甚為豐厚，而資產折讓往往成為另一個賣點，甚至是日後「扮 正經」的本錢。昨天提及的漢基控股(412) .其最近每股資產淨值(NAV) 接近3.9元，股價只有0.52元。
提防NAV大折讓陷阱
類似這樣的股票，看起來資產豐厚，折讓龐大，甚至令人憧憬私有化可能;不過，投資者抱有此想法可能是妄想，因為這些公司的股權結構千奇百怪，可能是A 公司持有B公司，B公司又持有A、C公 司•C公司又可能是B公司股東。股市內虛虛實實，千絲萬縷，表面分散，實為集中，貨源又拆又合，其實一早歸邊。
回到昨天文首提到，威利(273)股價在除權後大幅暴升，然後暴挫。心水清的投資者再望一下太平洋實業(767) , 中國置業投資(736)的股價表現，一樣出現過除權後股價暴升。股價暴升，又有NAV大折讓，如果閣下在此刻追入接貨 ，下一步還不走的話，要記住十年股海中 ，百萬財富隨時可以變毫子。
這類股票印刷機的運作，需要一個動聽的故事。所謂「故事」，即是能夠引君入甕的賣點，引投資者入市接棒， 或者事後將一切「合理化」。「向下炒」的股票，賣點可以是轉型，可以是注資，潮流時興博彩即有博彩，流行彩票即轉型彩票業，資源、環保更加是長賣長有的故仔。
共通點是，大部分資產及業務，閣聞所未聞，而且相關業務最終無疾而終，甚至乎一些巨額收購項目，寧可蝕本出售。更加教人困惑的是系內交換資產，一項資產左手交右手，發行一堆換股債券右手交到左手。更匪夷所思的是，透過公司買入豪宅或私人遊艇，公器私用。
至於股票印刷機的做法，可以是先把股價炒高，繼而配股、發換股債、認股權證等等工具，繼而不停拋售手上所持的股票，最後是在低價配股或行使換股債、認購權證等，補回之前活出的股份，賺取中間差價之餘，再次把貨源收集。假如股價跌得太殘，滿街屍骸時，甚至乎連收集也免得做，大比例合股、供股後，貨源輕易又收齊。一段時間後，重施故技，再向下炒，反覆來回賺取差價。
這類上市公司永遠不會為股東創造價值，只是一台股票印刷機器:但要成為一部出色的機器，則需要源源不絕的「故事 」配合。
一間公司股本經過又供又合的財技運作後，其資產可能也甚為豐厚，而資產折讓往往成為另一個賣點，甚至是日後「扮 正經」的本錢。昨天提及的漢基控股(412) .其最近每股資產淨值(NAV) 接近3.9元，股價只有0.52元。
提防NAV大折讓陷阱
類似這樣的股票，看起來資產豐厚，折讓龐大，甚至令人憧憬私有化可能;不過，投資者抱有此想法可能是妄想，因為這些公司的股權結構千奇百怪，可能是A 公司持有B公司，B公司又持有A、C公 司•C公司又可能是B公司股東。股市內虛虛實實，千絲萬縷，表面分散，實為集中，貨源又拆又合，其實一早歸邊。
回到昨天文首提到，威利(273)股價在除權後大幅暴升，然後暴挫。心水清的投資者再望一下太平洋實業(767) , 中國置業投資(736)的股價表現，一樣出現過除權後股價暴升。股價暴升，又有NAV大折讓，如果閣下在此刻追入接貨 ，下一步還不走的話，要記住十年股海中 ，百萬財富隨時可以變毫子。
2011年6月2日星期四
新股開快車 , 10公司趕月內上市
內地消費概念受捧
眾新股之中，市場預期較為觸目的，將會是內地兒童護理產品生產高青蛙主子，皆因近年在高通脹預期下，具內地消費概念的新股一直受到追捧，當中尤其針對兒童消費概念的新 股更大受投資者歡迎。例如去年上市的博士蛙( 1698)以及好孩子(1086)等，在上市過程中均惹來全城熱話。
市場人士相信，今次同樣打正旗號主攻兒童護理產品的青蛙王子，也將掀起一般旋風。市傳集團是次擬集資約2億至3億美元(即約15:6億至 23.4億港元) ，保薦人為建銀國際，安排行尚有聯昌。而5100西藏冰川礦泉水則擬集資約3億美元(約 23.4億港元) ，安排行包括摩根大通、建銀國際、中信證券、工銀國際以及東英。
光銀集資額今年最大
至於下周將會闖關的就包括光大銀行、大潤發、罕王集團、中滔環保 、金盾實業，以及由同仁堂科技 (1666)分拆業務於創業板上市的同仁堂國藥等。
當中，尤以光大銀行的集資額最高，因而成為市場焦點。據市場消息人士指，光大銀行是次集資額將達 468億至546億元，是今年以來於本港集資額最大的新肢。消息指，若集團闖關成功，將於6月13日開始推 介，7月11日掛牌，安排行更達10 間之多，包括光大證券、中金、摩根士丹利、摩根大通、瑞銀、法巴、美銀美林、中銀國際、高盛、及國泰君安等。
此外，早前有指因趕於來港上市，而放棄「雙幣雙股」的大潤發，也將於下周四進行上市聆訊。集團是決計劃募資約10億美元(約78億港元 ) ，是決上市安排行為匯豐、瑞銀、中金以及花旗等。
雖然新股蜂擁而上，不過綜合9間券商統計，將於今日齊齊「截飛」 的3隻捲土重來新股之中，就仍然只有龍翔(935)的公開發售部分，獲超額認購8.9倍，9間券商為其借出 3.89億元的存展額度;而券商只分別為華能新能源(958)以及源庫資 源，借出2650萬元及460萬的孖展額度，即相當於其公開發售部分則仍未獲足額認購。
另一方面，據市場消息指，下周二將再有3隻新股，分別為全城熱話 的PRADA、太平洋製罐，以及翔宇疏浚，齊齊舉行投資推介會。
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